The analytical shakedown solutions and numerical simulation were combined to develop a shakedown analysis method for the safety evaluation of bearing capacity of high-speed ballasted track structure. By introducing the load envelope diagram of shakedown load, the maximum load combination for a certain structure combination and material parameters was given. The results show that under any given friction coefficient, there are always "optimal" friction angle, thickness ratio and elastic modulus ratio of the ballast to the surface subgrade layer, so that the ballasted track structure has the optimal bearing capacity under the external load. Under the premise of meeting the safety and stability, the research results can make full use of the plastic potential of materials to the greatest extent, reduce the project cost, and provide theoretical basis for the reasonable evaluation of bearing capacity of high-speed ballasted track structure.